Bibliographic Details

Blindside : how to anticipate forcing events and wild cards in global politics / Francis Fukuyama, editor.

Imprint Washington, D.C. : Brookings Institution Press, c2007.
Description vi, 198 p. ; 24 cm.
Language English
Subject Emergency management -- United States.
International relations.
Emergency management.
International relations.
United States.
Format E-Resource, Print, Book
URL for this record
Other uniform titles American interest.
Other authors / contributors Fukuyama, Francis.
ISBN 9780815729907 (cloth : alk. paper)
0815729901 (cloth : alk. paper)
Notes "An American Interest Book."
Includes bibliographical references (p. 173-180) and index.
Summary "Focuses on developing analytical tools to anticipate and manage low-probability events. Addresses psychological and institutional obstacles preventing planning for low-probability tragedies and allocating necessary resources. Pinpoints failures---institutional and personal---that allowed events to surprise leaders and examines philosophies and methodologies of forecasting. Discusses low-probability, high-impact contingencies in various sectors"--Provided by publisher.
Table of Contents:
  • 1. The Challenges of Uncertainty: An Introduction
  • 2. Thinking about Catastrophe
  • Part I. Cases: Looking Back
  • 3. Slow Surprise: The Dynamics of Technology Synergy
  • 4. U.S. Intelligence Estimates of Soviet Collapse: Reality and Perception
  • 5. Econoshocks: The East Asian Crisis Case
  • Part II. Cases: Looking Ahead
  • 6. The Once and Future DARPA
  • 7. Fueled Again? In Search of Energy Security
  • 8. Emerging Infectious Diseases: Are We Prepared?
  • Part III. Forecasting
  • 9. Ahead of the Curve: Anticipating Strategic Surprise
  • 10. Can Scenarios Help Policymakers Be Both Bold and Careful?
  • 11. Innovation and Adaptation: IT Examples
  • Part IV. What Could Be
  • 12. Cassandra versus Pollyanna
  • 13. Global Discontinuities
  • 14. American Scenarios
  • 15. Afterword
  • Notes
  • Contributors
  • Index