Blindside : how to anticipate forcing events and wild cards in global politics /
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Imprint: | Washington, D.C. : Brookings Institution Press, c2007. |
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Description: | vi, 198 p. ; 24 cm. |
Language: | English |
Subject: | |
Format: | Print Book |
URL for this record: | http://pi.lib.uchicago.edu/1001/cat/bib/6494636 |
Table of Contents:
- 1. The Challenges of Uncertainty: An Introduction
- 2. Thinking about Catastrophe
- Part I. Cases: Looking Back
- 3. Slow Surprise: The Dynamics of Technology Synergy
- 4. U.S. Intelligence Estimates of Soviet Collapse: Reality and Perception
- 5. Econoshocks: The East Asian Crisis Case
- Part II. Cases: Looking Ahead
- 6. The Once and Future DARPA
- 7. Fueled Again? In Search of Energy Security
- 8. Emerging Infectious Diseases: Are We Prepared?
- Part III. Forecasting
- 9. Ahead of the Curve: Anticipating Strategic Surprise
- 10. Can Scenarios Help Policymakers Be Both Bold and Careful?
- 11. Innovation and Adaptation: IT Examples
- Part IV. What Could Be
- 12. Cassandra versus Pollyanna
- 13. Global Discontinuities
- 14. American Scenarios
- 15. Afterword
- Notes
- Contributors
- Index