Blindside : how to anticipate forcing events and wild cards in global politics /

This volume, edited by Fukuyama (Johns Hopkins Univ.), discusses strategic surprise through a loosely associated collection of essays in five brief sections. The first section examines the psychological and institutional impediments to dealing with low-probability events. This is followed by some historical examples (e.g., collapse of the former Soviet Union, Asian financial crisis) in "Cases: Looking Back." The third section addresses possible future cases of surprise with specific focus on energy policy, including a model institution to achieve technological solutions, and the dangers of new pandemics. The book then turns to "Forecasting" through systematic analysis or scenario methodology. Lastly, the "What Could Be" section includes a debate between James Kurth (Swarthmore College) and Gregg Easterbrook (Brookings Institution) as well as discussions by members of the American Interest editorial board. The roundtable discussion by the distinguished editorial panel provides a range of ideas and insights on future low-probability, potentially high-impact events. Summing Up: Recommended. Research and professional collections. E. A. Turpen Henry L. Stimson Center