Bibliographic Details

Blindside : how to anticipate forcing events and wild cards in global politics / Francis Fukuyama, editor.

Imprint Washington, D.C. : Brookings Institution Press, c2007.
Description vi, 198 p. ; 24 cm.
Language English
Subject Emergency management -- United States.
International relations.
Emergency management.
International relations.
United States.
Format E-Resource, Print, Book
URL for this record http://pi.lib.uchicago.edu/1001/cat/bib/6494636
Other uniform titles American interest.
Other authors / contributors Fukuyama, Francis.
ISBN 9780815729907 (cloth : alk. paper)
0815729901 (cloth : alk. paper)
Notes "An American Interest Book."
Includes bibliographical references (p. 173-180) and index.
Summary "Focuses on developing analytical tools to anticipate and manage low-probability events. Addresses psychological and institutional obstacles preventing planning for low-probability tragedies and allocating necessary resources. Pinpoints failures---institutional and personal---that allowed events to surprise leaders and examines philosophies and methodologies of forecasting. Discusses low-probability, high-impact contingencies in various sectors"--Provided by publisher.
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300 |a vi, 198 p. ;  |c 24 cm. 
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520 |a "Focuses on developing analytical tools to anticipate and manage low-probability events. Addresses psychological and institutional obstacles preventing planning for low-probability tragedies and allocating necessary resources. Pinpoints failures---institutional and personal---that allowed events to surprise leaders and examines philosophies and methodologies of forecasting. Discusses low-probability, high-impact contingencies in various sectors"--Provided by publisher. 
504 |a Includes bibliographical references (p. 173-180) and index. 
505 0 |a The challenges of uncertainty: an introduction / Francis Fukuyama -- Thinking about catastrophe / Richard A. Posner -- Cases: looking back -- Slow surprise: the dynamics of technology synergy / David Landes -- U.S. intelligence estimates of Soviet collapse: reality and perception / Bruce Berkowitz -- Econoshocks: the East Asian crisis case / David Hale -- Cases: looking ahead -- The once and future DARPA / William B. Bonvillian -- Fueled again? In search of energy security / Gal Luft and Anne Korin -- Emerging infectious diseases: are we prepared? / Scott Barrett -- Forecasting -- Ahead of the curve: anticipating strategic surprise / Peter Schwartz and Doug Randall -- Can scenarios help policymakers be both bold and careful? / Robert Lempert -- Innovation and adaptation: IT examples / M. Mitchell Waldrop -- What could be -- Cassandra vs. Pollyanna : a debate between James Kurth and Gregg Easterbrook -- Global discontinuities : a discussion with Owen Harries, Itamar Rabinovich, Niall Ferguson, and Scott Barrett -- American scenarios -- A discussion with Walter Russell Mead, Eliot Cohen, Ruth Wedgwood, Anne Applebaum, Bernard-Henri Lévy, Josef Joffe, Peter Schwartz, and Francis Fukuyama -- Afterword / Francis Fukuyama -- Notes -- Contributors -- Index. 
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