Hidden Bibliographic Details
| ISBN: | 1283517205
9781283517201
9781452701400
1452701407
1462353843
9781462353842
1452716846
9781452716848
9786613829658
661382965X
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| ISSN: | 2227-8885
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| Digital file characteristics: | data file
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| Notes: | Includes bibliographical references.
Restrictions unspecified
Electronic reproduction. [S.l.] : HathiTrust Digital Library, 2010.
Master and use copy. Digital master created according to Benchmark for Faithful Digital Reproductions of Monographs and Serials, Version 1. Digital Library Federation, December 2002. http://purl.oclc.org/DLF/benchrepro0212
English.
digitized 2010 HathiTrust Digital Library committed to preserve
Print version record.
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| Summary: | In oil-dependent countries, a major issue is how to stabilize fiscal spending when government revenue fluctuates along with the international price of oil. A stabilization fund would allow the government to pull through an oil price trough and absorb windfall revenue when prices are high. This paper focuses on two key issues. First, the paper proposes to base government spending on moving averages of past oil prices that are shown to behave nearly as a random walk. Second, it uses Monte Carlo simulations of a fiscal policy model to look at the probability that a given level of assets in the stabilization fund is exhausted over a certain number of years. The simulations show that with a fiscal policy based on moving averages over three to five years, a stabilization fund of about 75 percent of 2004 oil revenue would be adequate, which, in Nigeria, would equate to US$16-18 billion.
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| Other form: | Print version: Bartsch, Ulrich. How much is enough?. Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, African Dept., ©2006
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| Standard no.: | 10.5089/9781452701400.001
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